MIT Center for Theoretical Physics – a Leinweber Institute

Likelihood-based inference in particle physics, and in the physical sciences more broadly, relies on the assumption that the model accurately describes the data. When the model is misspecified, though, standard confidence intervals shrink to zero width with increasing data, producing overconfident and potentially misleading constraints. We propose the well-tempered likelihood, which divides the likelihood-ratio test statistic by a goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistic evaluated at the best-fit point. Under correct specification, the GOF is $\mathcal{O}(1)$ and standard inference is recovered. Under misspecification, both the likelihood and the GOF scale as $\mathcal{O}(N)$ for $N$ data points, so their ratio remains $\mathcal{O}(1)$ and the resulting well-tempered confidence interval self-limits at a floor determined by the model’s inadequacy, essentially reducing the effective sample size. In other words, \textit{all models are correct, as long as your dataset is small enough}. We present binned and unbinned formulations of the well-tempered likelihood—the latter based on a classifier two-sample test—and demonstrate our method on a Gaussian example and on a measurement of the strong coupling constant using synthetic electron-positron collisions.

We explore the potential of multiple possible future 10 TeV wakefield colliders to measure electroweak couplings of the Higgs boson. We find that the beam-beam interactions are not an impediment to high precision measurements of the Higgs couplings, provided that the luminosity spectra can be measured or calculated to high accuracy. In addition to $e^+ e^-$ colliders, we also assess the effectiveness of alternatives such as $e^- e^-$ colliders or $γγ$ colliders, which by-pass the positron acceleration challenge for wakefield colliders. We find that a 10 $\text{ab}^{-1}$ dataset at a $γγ$ collider yields qualitatively similar sensitivity to 10 $\text{ab}^{-1}$ at a muon collider and 1 $\text{ab}^{-1}$ at an $e^+e^-$ wakefield collider.

We present new \compass high-statistics measurements of the peripheral production of $ηπ^-$ and $η^\prime π^-$ pairs in the reactions $π^- p \to η^{(\prime)}π^- p$. For the first time, we perform an unbinned analysis of the high-mass region of the $ηπ^-$ and $η^\primeπ^-$ systems, which allows us to disentangle the exchange mechanisms governing their production. We report the first observation in high-energy scattering of an exotic Reggeon with high significance exceeding $5\,σ$ for both channels, which is, most likely, related to the exotic $π_1(1600)$.8

Relativistic quantum field theory is the structure on which the Standard Model and beyond-Standard Model physics are built. One of its most striking predictions is the Unruh effect: an accelerating observer measures the Minkowski vacuum as a thermal bath at a fixed temperature. Despite decades of theoretical interest, this effect has never been directly observed. We propose to use the high acceleration gradients provided by wakefield accelerators, coupled with a forward laboratory-frequency ~THz detector array, to measure the resulting forward-beamed radiation, and outline the unique signature provided by quantum detailed balance to extract the signal from backgrounds. While challenging, such a measurement appears within reach of present-day accelerator and detector technologies.